Danger to Arab dream

Is Arab spring going yellow before bloom? Hardly a day goes without discussion by political analysts and historians about Arab spring. The students of politics express their fears and hopes. The more it is discussed the more is the diversity in opinion and confusion. " As one Egyptian scholar put it that the end is stretched between the dreamers and the drafters. I unlearn to learn every day. Dawn brings hope and sun set leaves behind despair, reflected in the political horizon of Arab world on daily basis. " Arabs nation is more fragmented than it looks geographically. The division on sectarian, religious and tribal basis has been used mercilessly to replace national unity. International players along with local cronies are at play and inducing fear by every possible means available to them. Egypt is the only country having intellectual depth with resources and ideological organisations. But the masses are sharply divided in two major camps,Muslim brotherhood and liberals. The former has a long history of struggle and with a well organised party apparatus. The majority of populace is liberal but having no organisation and strategy. The electoral success of Muslim brotherhood does not speak of their mass popularity but they had an edge over the others because it was the only organised political forum available on the ground. The Egyptian army like any army establishments of muslim countries, is a highly politicised-fascist force having a big chunk in the economy of the country and a trump card to have a final say. They will resist till last minute for their survival. The liberals and democrats may join hands with the army to counter Muslim brotherhood. It will be extremely unwise to do so. The final show down will be between the public and the army. In my opinion, the victory of public of any shade will be a better option than army. Army must be disarmed politically. It will be too premature to predict. Egyptian revolution is still evolving.I would have better if the Egyptians would have first framed a temporary constitution to ensure peaceful transition of power instead of going for election. I believe they were trapped by the seasoned army generals. The Libyan situation is completely different. It is tribal based society made of the union of two kingdoms. Colonial rule was followed by a long rule by a tyrant. Who has left behind a huge black hole. The small tyrants are still at work. It is a rich country with many aspiring stake holders. They failed to establish a neutral centralised authority and to deliver some fruit of revolution to the masses like eradication of corruption immediately. The post revolution delay to deliver has made me a bit skeptical and hope that sanity prevails, to avert civil war. Yemen and Bahrain uprising were nipped in the bud by Saudi Arab and US jointly to thwart Iran ambitions in Bahrain and Al-Qaeda designs in Yemen. Both were considered equally dangerous to Saudi- American interests. The worst and most dangerous situation prevails in Syria. The regimen brutality, barbarity and beastly character is established beyond any shadow of doubt. The ruling class is in close collaboration with Iran and affluent Christian minority. They have closed ranks against Sunni majority backed by Saudi and Al-Qaeda, each fighting for hegemony. Here the mass uprising has taken the shape of sectarian civil war and so the blood let is continuing. It is the most difficult situation to predict the outcome of the rivalry between three fundamentalist rivals, Saudi, Iran and Al-Qaeda. The big fear has come true it has spilled over to Lebanon, the cafeteria of middle east, with no national outlook but a loosely held sectarian enclaves. The sole exception was Tunisia that has undergone an unexpected peaceful transition of power. It is too early to write on the wall about Arab spring. The evolving process has to take its due course if given chance. But the worrying factor is, if the masses are robbed of this "due time" in the crazy chase for stealing the uprising by fundamentalists for establishing their hegemony, it will be disastrous. It is not an easy time for Arabs. The word democracy is new to them. It's implications and dividends are unknown to the public. They were aware of the power of tyrants but unaware of their own strength. They have yet to compare the power of ballot with bullet. Arabs have not only been deprived of their rights but robbed of their dreams, imaginations and thoughts. Human dignity and national pride has been crushed by ruthless tyrants. Their ears are tuned to the shrieking noise of bullets and were not allowed to tune themselves to the melody of music, love, peace and prosperity. Decades long silence screamed for peace, freedom and prosperity. They deserve full bloom spring with no fear of loosing what they achieved by their blood and let their dreams not go yellow. Dr. Khurshid Alam. London. 4/6/2012